Grosvenor Vegas holiday bubble exit hand – should i have folded?

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This topic contains 4 replies, has 4 voices, and was last updated by  Frodge 1 year, 2 months ago.

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    Would really appreciate some feedback here, good or bad. Via winning 2 satellites I qualified for the £220 final stage Vegas holiday qualifier. There were 13 entrants and we got down to the last 3, then this happened:

    ** Hand # 6530204246 starting – 2017-04-30 23:30:27

    ** VEGAS: Colossus Super Satellite[24348989]:Table 1 [Multi Table Hold’em] (250|500 NL – MTT) Real Money

    StewSixx sitting in seat 5 with 37,341

    Frodge sitting in seat 6 with 15,570[Dealer]

    LKD sitting in seat 8 with 12,089

    LKD ante’d – 50

    StewSixx ante’d – 50

    Frodge ante’d – 50

    LKD posted the small blind – 250

    StewSixx posted the big blind – 500

    ** Dealing cards to Frodge: 3d, Ah

    Frodge raised to 1,150

    LKD folded

    StewSixx called – 650

    ** Dealing the flop: As, 8d, 3s

    StewSixx checked

    Frodge bet – 1,500

    StewSixx called – 1,500

    ** Dealing the turn: 4h

    StewSixx bet – 5,500

    Frodge went all-in – 12,870

    StewSixx called – 7,370

    StewSixx shows: 4s, Ac

    Frodge shows: 3d, Ah

    ** Dealing the river: Kh

    StewSixx wins 31,440 from the main pot

    StewSixx had been playing a little unusually and I’d seen him limp-in with big Aces (e.g. AJo) a couple of times and also under rep QQ by calling a min raise and then calling off the subsequent all-in 3-bet. He had been running very well, picking up AA, AK and flopping sets at just the right moments.

    His big bet on the turn did worry me but I just couldn’t fold 2-pair there. I would’ve been left with the same stack as the other player if I’d folded so perhaps an ICM nightmare. There were 2 holidays up for grabs and obviously I missed out. There was no 3rd place prize.

    I’m absolutely gutted, I must admit. I just can’t seem to get that big win.



    Yeah thats a rough way to go out thats for sure.

    Honestly to me on the surface it just looks like ‘one of those spots’ where you are pretty much destined to go broke. If stack sizes were larger then you would have a chance at call/call and possibly keeping some behind in case of shenanigans but as they are you are pretty much done for.

    That all being said even against a tight value range we still have good equity (60%) and against most ranges we have at least 60-70% equity. I think that getting it in is fine though closer than it may appear initially. I do think that if LKD was a loose cannon I might be more tempted to make the conservative fold to the turn lead but he would have to be the kind of player we could expect to see shoving a decent bunch too much to make a difference



    Unlucky Frodge.
    Think you hit the nail on the head about ICM, doesn’t work going to war with big stack.
    But a flop like that i’m probably calling also, very unlucky mate.
    Chin up, it’ll come, that’s what i’m telling myself.



    This is horrible. Not horribly played, just a horrible situation.

    With two packages and no third prize you *could* fold the turn. Is it the right play? I’m not sure, possibly.

    But I know what happened and what he had. I’m not sure I could find the fold if it was me. I think I fold sometimes.


    There are still some spots left to join Jeff Kimber and me in the Colossus at the WSOP. 20 packages altogether, I think there is about half a dozen left.

    Open your account here



    Thanks for the replies. I Satellited though to the £220 final stage again last Sunday and this time finished 4th! Was a different story, though. Not a cruel exit, just 3-bet all-in with A8 into AK when I thought it was right to make the play (was short stack in SB against two very big ones, one of which was on the button and had made the raise).

    For info, I discussed the A3 hand with a friend and these were the reasons I went all-in. Not scientific but thought I’d post it here:

    Reasons I went all-in were:

    1) I thought he had Ax not 2-pair (probably A10+) and didn’t want to go to war pre-flop and risk losing a big chunk of his stack by flipping against a pair or KQ type of hand

    2) Either that or he had a flush draw with a pair or other equity hand that he was trying to bully me with. I thought he wouldn’t have potted with a big hand as it was less likely I’d call and he could then milk me, in hindsight he perhaps outplayed me a bit here

    3) I still felt I had fold equity in an ICM sense as if he’d folded he would’ve still had 2x the short stack

    4) If I folded I would’ve been on par with the short stack and it’s a lottery then with the blinds so high. Would’ve been back to all-insville whereas I had two pair now and quite unlikely to not have the best hand (or so I thought)

    5) the other player was an absolute rock up until 3 handed, had been playing well and choosing spots carefully. I didn’t feel I had an advantage over him or big stack in any way

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